Halcyon Supply (DTC outdoor goods, ~$3M ARR)

Note on illustrative case studies: This case study is illustrative, modeled on patterns we see when teams use our product. Halcyon Supply is a representative composite at the described scale and category. We will replace these with named customer case studies as we accumulate them.

The problem

Halcyon Supply had a 2-email cart-recovery sequence (1-hour reminder, 24-hour discount push) running in Klaviyo for the previous two years. Recovery rate sat at 9.4% — middle of the pack for DTC at their AOV ($120 average). The team felt the sequence was leaving money on the table at the upper AOV range ($300+ carts), but didn't have a clear hypothesis on what to change.

The approach

We started by segmenting their cart-abandon data into three AOV bands: low (under $50), mid ($50–$200), and high ($200+). The recovery rate by band told the story:

• Low AOV: 14.2% (above their average — the discount push worked)
• Mid AOV: 9.1% (matched the average)
• High AOV: 3.8% (well below — the discount-led sequence was killing it)

The high-AOV band needed a different sequence. We drafted a 4-email flow with branching by AOV band, replacing the single sequence:

Standard sequence (low and mid AOV):

1. 1-hour reminder, no discount (existing)
2. 24-hour push with objection-handling (sizing, shipping) — new
3. 72-hour discount push, 10% off (existing, repositioned)
4. 5-day final-call with 15% off + real deadline — new

High-AOV branch ($200+):

1. 1-hour reminder, no discount, human-tone (from a named team member)
2. 24-hour follow-up: "questions about your {{productName}}? — reply, no bot, no script"
3. 72-hour: founder-signed note offering a 15-minute consult ("we'd rather help you decide than discount")
4. 7-day: gentle close, no discount

Each high-AOV email was hand-edited from our drafts; the team felt the founder-tone was load-bearing and didn't want it sounding templated. Our brand-voice extractor produced a descriptor that the writer used as the editing constraint, not a finished output.

The results

Six weeks after the new sequences shipped, recovery rates by band:

• Low AOV: 15.8% (small lift from objection-handling email 2)
• Mid AOV: 13.2% (4-point lift from sequence length + objection-handling)
• High AOV: 11.7% (8-point lift, the big win)

Overall recovery rate climbed from 9.4% to 17.1%. The high-AOV branch did most of the work; the standard sequence improvements were meaningful but incremental.

Recovered cart AOV lifted 12% — a structural effect of the high-AOV recovery being higher than the low-AOV. Halcyon's previous sequence had been recovering disproportionately from cheaper carts.

What we'd do differently

The high-AOV "founder consult" offer (email 3 of the high branch) had a 6% click-through to the calendar — modest. We'd test this against a different positioning: instead of an open-ended consult, offer a specific deliverable ("I'll review your cart and email back with sizing recommendations within the day"). Lower friction, more concrete, probably higher take-rate.

We'd also add a browse-abandon sequence as the next project. Halcyon's email-capture rate at the product page is decent (15% via wishlist features), but no browse-abandon flow was running — likely 5–10x the lift of further cart-recovery tuning at this point.

The takeaway

Cart recovery isn't a single funnel; it's at least two funnels at most DTC AOV ranges. Discount-led sequences work for low AOV and actively backfire for high AOV. The structural fix — branching by AOV and using human-tone copy for the upper band — is the kind of thing most DTC brands know they should do and never get around to. The tooling makes the difference between "we'll get to it next quarter" and "it shipped this week."